# 2026 NFL simulation methodology

Snapshot locked: 2026-08-21

- 30,000 full-season Monte Carlo runs; seed `20260821`.
- Rating blend: 50% final 2025 ESPN FPI, 35% current Super Bowl futures implied strength, 15% Auto Draft Years 2026 projected offensive PPG.
- Components standardized league-wide; composite scaled to a 4.5-point standard deviation.
- Home-field advantage: 1.5 points; no advantage at neutral sites.
- Game win probability: logistic transform with scale 6.0.
- NFL playoff structure: four division winners, three wild cards, conference reseeding, neutral Super Bowl.
- Approximation: tied records use model rating plus deterministic jitter instead of the full official tiebreak tree.
- Predictions remain locked. Later runs may only append actual scores and `right`/`wrong` audit status.