Seven months is enough time to process a Super Bowl loss.
Probably.
Unfortunately for New England, the NFL has decided the healthiest way to begin 2026 is to fly directly back to Seattle and confront the people responsible.
The last time Drake Maye saw this defense, he was pressured on 52.8% of his dropbacks, sacked six times and spent most of the evening discovering Seattle defenders in places where blockers were theoretically supposed to be.
And now Coyote vs. Acme is finally in theaters, which feels appropriate. The Super Bowl occasionally resembled Maye waiting beneath a piano labeled SEATTLE PASS RUSH.
So forget revenge for a moment.
The more useful question—for New England and fantasy managers—is much simpler:
Did the Patriots actually fix the thing that broke them?
Patriots-Seahawks Game Snapshot
The line still has Seattle favored by 3.5 Tuesday night. Weather should be a non-factor, which is good because this matchup already has enough variables without us pretending a seven-mile-per-hour breeze has strong opinions about Rhamondre Stevenson.
Everything Starts With Drake Maye
Seattle's Super Bowl plan is worth revisiting because the scary part wasn't really the blitzing.
It was what happened when Seattle didn't blitz.
Five of the Seahawks' six sacks came with four-man rushes. Their standard four-man front generated a 43.5% pressure rate. Seattle blitzed Maye on only 13.2% of his dropbacks—but when Mike Macdonald did send extra bodies, those pressures hit at an absurd 85.7% rate.
New England also produced −0.26 EPA per play on first and second down, creating an average third down of 6.5 yards. They threw on 14 of 15 third downs.
That is not offensive football. That is repeatedly clicking “I'm feeling lucky” on 3rd-and-7.
Our Week 1 model ranks Maye QB15, while the fresh projection feed has him at 18.92 PPR points, 255.6 passing yards and 1.66 touchdowns.
I don't hate Maye in fantasy.
But the point estimate disguises the matchup's volatility.
If New England can run efficiently on early downs, identify Seattle's overloads and give Maye immediate answers against pressure, QB15 could look conservative. If the Patriots spend the first quarter reenacting February, Seattle DST could be halfway to its projection before America finishes arguing about the first holding call.
And that's why the ADY model has Seattle DST ranked No. 1 this week.
Rhamondre Stevenson Just Became Much More Interesting
The biggest fantasy change arrived before kickoff.
TreVeyon Henderson is officially out with an ankle injury after missing practice throughout the week. Starting center Ben Brown is also out.
That pushes Rhamondre Stevenson from an uncomfortable RB2/flex decision toward a volume play.
Our older ADY model had Stevenson at 11.81 PPR points and RB26. That model was generated before the final injury report.
before the final injury report
after Henderson was ruled out
The fresh feed, incorporating Henderson's absence, has him at:
| Projection | Stevenson |
|---|---|
| Carries | 15.10 |
| Targets | 3.25 |
| Rush yards | 65.60 |
| Receiving yards | 20.36 |
| PPR points | 15.37 |
That's a 3.56-point increase from the older projection.
I'm starting him.
Not because Seattle suddenly became a friendly matchup. It didn't. Stevenson also has the delightful responsibility of helping diagnose and pick up the same pressure packages that tortured New England in February.
But opportunity is opportunity. Fantasy football has spent decades teaching us complicated lessons before eventually whispering, “Actually, touches are pretty good.”
A.J. Brown Has an Opening Seattle Didn't Plan For
Seattle's defense is still the matchup advantage.
Its secondary, however, is entering Wednesday slightly duct-taped.
Starting safety Ty Okada is out, while Nick Emmanwori is questionable following ankle surgery. Seattle also lost rookie safety Bud Clark for the season during the preseason.
That matters enormously for A.J. Brown.
The fresh projection gives Brown 8.02 targets, 79.8 yards and 16.84 PPR points in his Patriots debut. Our ADY model ranks him WR12.
Brown is an obvious start.
The more interesting player is DeMario Douglas.
Douglas was able to find space behind Seattle's pressures in the Super Bowl, particularly when Seattle asked safeties to handle him after sending pressure. New England simply couldn't consistently get him the football. With Seattle's safety rotation compromised, those areas could reopen.
I'm not starting Douglas in normal leagues. His fresh projection is only 6.42 points.
But watch him.
Sometimes the useful Week 1 information isn't who scored 22 points. It's who keeps appearing on your screen before everyone else notices.
JSN vs. Christian Gonzalez Is the Main Event
If you enjoy elite players making fantasy projections feel mildly disrespectful, this is your matchup.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba enters Week 1 as our WR4 and has the highest fresh fantasy projection of anyone in this game at 19.69 PPR points.
The feed expects 9.28 targets, 6.83 catches and 94.2 yards.
Standing across from him is Christian Gonzalez.
In the Super Bowl, Gonzalez covered JSN on 14 routes and allowed one catch for 16 yards on three targets, including a touchdown-saving breakup. JSN had led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards during the season.
So should fantasy managers worry?
Not enough to change anything.
Gonzalez can hurt JSN's efficiency. He probably cannot erase a projected nine-target role. This is precisely why elite volume matters: sometimes your receiver has to play one of the best corners alive. You don't bench him and start Romeo Doubs because a matchup chart made you nervous.
Start JSN.
Then enjoy the heavyweight fight.
The Seattle Player I'm Watching Most Isn't JSN
It's rookie running back Jadarian Price.
Price replaces Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III, who ran for 135 yards on 27 carries against New England. That rushing success unlocked Seattle's play-action game: Sam Darnold averaged 7.6 yards per attempt with a 116.9 passer rating off play action, versus 4.6 yards per attempt and a 61.6 rating without it.
Price, however, didn't play a preseason snap.
Seattle has also made clear that George Holani, Emanuel Wilson and the other backs can contribute.
Our feed projects Price for 12.78 carries, 54.9 rushing yards and 9.78 PPR points.
That's why I'm watching his role, not chasing his box score.
And watch AJ Barner too. Seattle used multiple tight ends on 33 Super Bowl snaps, forcing New England into heavier personnel. Barner then scored off play action. He's healthy and projected for 4.67 targets Wednesday.
If Seattle can establish outside zone again, Price isn't the only beneficiary. The entire offense gets easier.
So What Should Fantasy Managers Actually Do?
Start JSN and Brown normally.
Move Stevenson up into your lineup after Henderson's absence.
Maye is playable, but I prefer him as a fringe QB1/high-end QB2 rather than pretending the Super Bowl pressure problem disappeared because the calendar changed.
And Seattle DST is one of my favorite starts of Week 1.
Most importantly, pay attention to how this game happens.
If it cannot, every route and projection becomes harder to reach.
Routes and two-minute work matter as much as his carry total.
Motion and slot usage could attack Seattle's stressed safety group.
Opening-drive snaps and passing-down work will tell us quickly.
Multiple-tight-end usage can unlock both the run and play action.
Targets behind pressure could become next week's useful information.
Can New England protect Maye without keeping half the offense home to block? Does Stevenson own the backfield? Where does Brown line up? Does Seattle trust Price immediately? Does Barner remain integral to the heavy-personnel package?
Week 1 gives fantasy managers information we simply could not have in August.
Seven months ago, Seattle already showed New England the exam questions.
Wednesday night we find out whether the Patriots studied—or just changed the font on their notes.
The Short Version
- Start: JSN, A.J. Brown and Rhamondre Stevenson.
- Stevenson is the biggest fantasy riser after Henderson was ruled out.
- Seattle DST is ADY's DST1 and has a legitimate matchup case, not merely a shiny ranking.
- Maye's protection is the game. If New England solves Seattle's four-man pressure, the entire Patriots offense becomes more interesting.
- Watch Price, Barner and Douglas for role clues that could matter far beyond one Wednesday night.
Sources and freshness: Patriots official Week 1 preview; Patriots Gameplan film review; official final injury report; Seahawks official game preview; bet365 odds snapshot; National Weather Service; Sleeper Week 1 projection endpoint. ADY ranks were generated Aug. 28; the separate injury-adjusted projection feed was captured Sept. 8 at 6:56 p.m. CT. Odds, weather, injuries and projections can move before kickoff. Fantasy projections are estimates for informational and entertainment purposes.