QB · SEA · 2026 fantasy outlook
Sam Darnold: 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Our model ranks Sam Darnold about 106 places above his market price, which is the profile we treat as a genuine value rather than a hunch.
Where the market has him
Our published board has him at 144, 4 places higher than consensus ADP. Across 16 ranking sources the spread is 45.8 places — a long way apart. The unblended model sits 106 places above the market, which is our threshold for a major disagreement.
Our board recommends him around round 15. The replacement-level quarterback we measure him against is Jaxson Dart, which is the honest comparison: the question is never whether he is good, it is how much better he is than the player you could have instead.
The track record
Across 6 drafted seasons in our sample, Sam Darnold finished at or above his positional draft price 4 times. He returned a severe bust in 4 of them. He played 13 games or fewer in 4 of those seasons — the availability line that separates hits from disasters more sharply than price does.
| Season | Drafted as | Finished | PPG | Games | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB28 | QB13 | 14.7 | 17 | — |
| 2024 | QB30 | QB9 | 18.8 | 17 | — |
| 2021 | QB29 | QB28 | 14.2 | 12 | Severe bust |
| 2020 | QB28 | QB29 | 12.1 | 12 | Severe bust |
| 2019 | QB24 | QB27 | 15.6 | 13 | Severe bust |
| 2018 | QB32 | QB27 | 13 | 13 | Severe bust |
Positional draft rank against final positional finish on PPR total points. A severe bust is a finish outside the top 60 FLEX scorers.
Risk and upside
Our model tiers him low for risk and moderate for upside. Across the 2026 board those two scores are essentially uncorrelated, so a low-risk label is not a low-ceiling label.
Why the model says low risk: Low risk profile: weekly/market volatility (71.8) with role uncertainty (50.2) as the secondary driver.
Sam Darnold: common questions
Where is Sam Darnold being drafted in 2026?
Sam Darnold is going around pick 148 overall, the QB23 off the board in consensus ADP across the ranking sources we track, though individual sources have him as high as 97 and as low as 308.
Is Sam Darnold a good pick in 2026?
Our model ranks Sam Darnold about 106 places above his market price, which is the profile we treat as a genuine value rather than a hunch.
How risky is Sam Darnold?
Our model puts him in the low risk tier. Risk here combines availability history, role certainty, how much the ranking sources disagree, and week-to-week volatility. It is a measure of how wide the range of outcomes looks, not a prediction that he will get hurt.
How many fantasy points will Sam Darnold score in 2026?
Our projection has him at about 13 points per game in full PPR, or roughly 205 on the season once 1.2 projected games lost are priced in. Projections are a central estimate, not a floor.
Drafted around the same cost
ADP is consensus across the ranking sources Auto Draft Years tracks. Historical finishes are positional ranks on PPR total points, 2018–2025. Board generated Aug 17, 2026. For informational and entertainment purposes only — projections are estimates, not forecasts.