We simulated the entire 2026 NFL season 30,000 times.

NFL preseason predictions have a wonderful survival mechanism.

We make them in August. We speak confidently. We publish them. Then by November, when half of them resemble evidence from a minor financial crime, everybody quietly moves on.

Not this year.

We are doing something much less emotionally healthy.

On August 21, 2026, we locked a prediction for all 272 regular-season games, simulated the entire season 30,000 times, ran the playoff bracket and selected a Super Bowl favorite.

Then we saved it.

When the season ends, we are coming back with two colors: green for what we got right, red for what we got wrong.

No deleting. No moving the goalposts. No remembering that we "always kind of liked Houston."

Just evidence.

The question behind the experiment is simple:

If we freeze everything we know before the season and account for every team's actual path, who is most likely to win Super Bowl LXI?

And almost immediately, the simulation gave us a complication.

The team projected to win the most regular-season games is not the team projected to win the Super Bowl.

Welcome to football.

First, the boring but important part: what did we actually simulate?

The model was frozen on August 21, 2026.

Every team's strength rating combines three inputs:

50% final 2025 ESPN FPI

35% August 21 Super Bowl futures strength

15% AutoDraftYears 2026 projected offensive scoring

Those components are standardized across the league and combined into one team rating, scaled to a 4.5-point standard deviation. Home teams receive 1.5 points of home-field advantage. Neutral-site games receive none. Game probabilities are then created through a logistic function using a scale of 6.0.

That last paragraph is admittedly less fun than arguing about quarterbacks on television, but it matters.

ESPN defines FPI as an estimate of team strength measured in points above or below an average team. Its final 2025 ratings had Seattle No. 1, the Rams No. 2, Detroit No. 3, Green Bay No. 4 and Houston No. 5.

The futures market adds information that last year's results cannot know: offseason roster movement, injuries, quarterback uncertainty and the collective opinion of people willing to lose money while being extremely confident.

Our offensive model adds the part we know best: expected 2026 scoring environment.

Then we make everyone actually play the schedule.

Not metaphorically.

All 272 games.

Thirty thousand times.

The NFL has helpfully made this year especially absurd. The schedule stretches across 18 weeks, six days of the week and eight time zones. There are a record nine international games across seven countries, including games in Australia, Brazil, England, France, Germany, Mexico and Spain.

The Rams and 49ers begin their season in Melbourne because apparently Los Angeles to San Francisco was insufficiently inconvenient.

And after doing all of that, this is the top of the board:

And there is our first problem.

Detroit wins the regular season. Los Angeles wins the simulation.

The Lions project for 12.04 wins, highest in football.

The Rams project for 11.95.

Yet Los Angeles is almost twice as likely as Detroit to win the Super Bowl: 17.28% versus 8.64%.

Why?

Schedule.

Detroit has the easiest schedule in our entire model based on average opponent rating.

Los Angeles has the second-hardest.

This is exactly why projecting team quality and projecting wins are not the same exercise.

Detroit gets a schedule that behaves like a helpful aunt at Thanksgiving. More food? Need anything? Want me to wrap up some extra wins for later?

The Rams get an itinerary assembled by someone who appears to hold a personal grudge.

They open against San Francisco in Australia. Then come the Giants, Broncos, Eagles and Bills. Their final seven games include Green Bay, Kansas City, San Francisco, Dallas, Seattle, Tampa Bay and Seattle again.

NFL.com's own schedule analysis called the Rams' closing stretch an "absolute beast," and Los Angeles also has a league-high seven prime-time games.

Our model still makes the Rams the favorite in 16 of 17 games.

That doesn't mean it expects them to go 16-1.

This is one of the most important distinctions in the entire project.

If Los Angeles has a 65% chance to win six different games, circling "W" six times on a schedule is mathematically ridiculous. A 65% favorite loses more than one out of every three tries.

The season is not a 17-leg parlay where all the favorites obediently win.

Thus: 16 games as the favorite.

Expected record: roughly 12-5.

Math has once again arrived to ruin a perfectly enjoyable afternoon.

The Rams aren't just a schedule story

The model's Los Angeles enthusiasm also makes sense outside the spreadsheet.

The Rams finished 2025 No. 2 in ESPN FPI. Then they traded for reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, who was coming off a record-setting 23-sack season. The deal sent Jared Verse and significant draft capital to Cleveland.

The futures market responded accordingly. The Rams are currently sitting around +500 across major books, with Buffalo the next shortest team around +1000.

So the model is not uncovering an underground Rams movement operating out of an abandoned warehouse.

Everybody knows they're good.

What the simulation adds is this: even after making Los Angeles navigate one of football's nastiest schedules, they remain the most likely champion.

That matters more to me than simply ranking them No. 1.

Meanwhile, Seattle would like to remind everyone who actually won the last one

The defending champions are not being treated like a cute little Cinderella story.

Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, with its defense sacking Drake Maye six times and intercepting him twice.

Final 2025 FPI ranked Seattle first.

Our model gives them 11.93 expected wins, a 92.77% playoff probability, a 22.93% chance to win the NFC and a 13.70% chance to repeat as champion.

The problem is location.

Specifically, the NFC West.

Seattle's division contains the No. 1 Super Bowl favorite, the defending champion and a San Francisco team that still projects for 10.40 wins.

Arizona is also there.

Sorry, Arizona.

Seattle's schedule is the sixth-hardest in our model, and after its Week 11 bye the Seahawks still have San Francisco, Dallas, the Giants, Philadelphia, the Rams, Carolina and the Rams again.

Week 16 is Rams-Seahawks on Christmas.

Week 18 is Seahawks-Rams again.

There is a non-zero chance the NFC playoff bracket spends the final month being decided by two teams staring at each other across the room like people who have been trapped at the same airport gate for nine hours.

Buffalo might have the best AFC path

Buffalo doesn't lead the league in expected wins.

It does lead the AFC in conference championship probability: 28.96%.

The Bills make the playoffs in 94.87% of simulations and win the AFC East 75.08% of the time.

Most interestingly, their schedule gets substantially easier as the year progresses.

The opening stretch is unpleasant: Houston, Detroit, the Chargers, New England and the Rams all arrive in the first five games.

Then Baltimore appears in Week 8.

But by November, the schedule starts taking off its steel-toed boots.

The Bills finish with Green Bay, Chicago, Denver, Miami and the Jets over the final five weeks. They are favored in 16 of 17 games, with the only projected loss coming at Los Angeles in Week 5.

There is one scheduling concern. Buffalo and Chicago each have six short weeks, the most in football.

Still, if Buffalo survives September and October intact, the path opens considerably.

The model gives the Bills a 14.75% Super Bowl probability, second only to Los Angeles.

The market's raw August 21 implied probability was only 9.09%.

That isn't a pure betting edge—the market itself is 35% of our rating and raw sportsbook probabilities include hold—but it does show what happens when Buffalo's No. 1 projected AutoDraftYears offense and a favorable full-season path are layered onto the market price.

Baltimore is back in the annual "this looks terrifying" business

Baltimore went 8-9 in 2025.

Our simulation essentially replies: that's nice.

The Ravens project for 11.89 wins, make the postseason 95.18% of the time—the highest rate in the league—and win the AFC North in 69.58% of simulations.

Their Super Bowl probability is 12.40%.

The schedule helps. Baltimore owns our fifth-easiest slate.

But the cleaner explanation is that the model views 2025 as much less representative of underlying quality than the record suggests. Baltimore still finished eighth in final ESPN FPI and our 2026 offensive model projects 27.2 points per game, fourth in football.

The most important regular-season dates are obvious: at Buffalo in Week 8, at Houston in Week 12 and the two Cincinnati games.

Baltimore-Cincinnati in Weeks 7 and 17 could do significant violence to playoff seeding and everyone's blood pressure.

Every team's 2026 schedule, in one increasingly unhealthy exercise

AFC East

Buffalo Bills — 11.69 wins, 94.87% playoffs

The early schedule is the test. Houston, Detroit, the Chargers, New England and Los Angeles arrive before the Week 7 bye, then Baltimore shows up immediately afterward. Survive that and the road gets much friendlier. Buffalo is our AFC favorite.

New England Patriots — 10.32 wins, 79.22% playoffs

New England is one of the more volatile good teams. Six games sit close to coin-flip territory, including Jacksonville, Chicago, Green Bay, Kansas City and the Chargers. The Patriots also added A.J. Brown this summer, giving Drake Maye the established No. 1 receiver the offense lacked. The model doesn't expect another 17-win run including the postseason, but it absolutely expects New England to matter.

New York Jets — 4.56 wins, 0.32% playoffs

The Jets draw an easy opponent schedule on paper—29th-hardest by our ratings—and it barely helps. Their most winnable stretch runs through Miami, Cleveland, Las Vegas and Miami again. Buffalo and New England occupy four divisional dates. A charitable schedule can only perform so many medical procedures.

Miami Dolphins — 3.68 wins, 0.04% playoffs

Miami has our lowest expected-win total. The Dolphins also face the fifth-hardest schedule, which feels unnecessarily punitive. Their closing run is Chicago, Green Bay, the Chargers, Buffalo and New England. The simulation identifies one game in which Miami is the favorite: home against the Jets in Week 12.

That is not an encouraging sentence.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens — 11.89 wins, 95.18% playoffs

Baltimore combines elite underlying strength with the fifth-easiest schedule. The Ravens are favored in 16 games. Buffalo is the lone outright projected loss, although Houston and Cincinnati are close.

Cincinnati Bengals — 10.77 wins, 81.83% playoffs

The Bengals quietly receive our second-easiest schedule. That matters. Miami, Tennessee, Atlanta, Washington, New Orleans, Cleveland twice and Carolina provide enough runway for Cincinnati to project above 10 wins despite ranking only 13th in final 2025 FPI.

Pittsburgh Steelers — 8.21 wins, 24.85% playoffs

Pittsburgh's schedule is a trap door. The first half is manageable. The back half is not. Jacksonville, Baltimore, Houston and another Baltimore game arrive during the final five weeks. If the Steelers are hanging around the wild-card race in December, nobody will be allowed to relax.

Cleveland Browns — 4.53 wins, 0.46% playoffs

Cleveland has a relatively easy opponent slate and still fails to become a meaningful playoff threat in the simulation. The Browns are not favored in a single game. Losing Garrett obviously does not help the broader outlook. Sometimes strength of schedule is a life raft. Sometimes the boat has already left.

AFC South

Houston Texans — 10.41 wins, 81.80% playoffs

Houston is the model's clear divisional favorite at 64.02%. Buffalo in Week 1, Cincinnati in Week 2 and Indianapolis in Week 3 create an immediate stress test. The late schedule is also sneaky: four of Houston's final six involve outdoor road games in Pittsburgh, Washington, Philadelphia and Green Bay, something NFL.com's schedule research specifically highlighted for the dome-based Texans.

Jacksonville Jaguars — 9.40 wins, 56.68% playoffs

Jacksonville gets the NFL's strangest mini-residency: Philadelphia in London in Week 5, Houston at Wembley in Week 6, then a Week 7 bye. The Jaguars have played more international games than any franchise and will reach 16 after those two. The model has Jacksonville living around the playoff cut line all year.

Indianapolis Colts — 7.83 wins, 18.84% playoffs

The schedule gives Indianapolis opportunities late. Tennessee, Cleveland and Jacksonville all appear in the final month. But Houston is a sizable favorite in the division, and the Colts enter December needing to make up ground.

Tennessee Titans — 4.88 wins, 0.78% playoffs

Tennessee's opponent difficulty is almost perfectly average. Unfortunately, the team rating is not. The Titans' most favorable games come against the Jets, Browns and Raiders. Eleven games have Tennessee at a 30% win probability or lower.

AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers — 9.50 wins, 63.31% playoffs

This is the most open division in football. The Chargers win it 43.20% of the time, Kansas City 33.41% and Denver 22.72%. Los Angeles gets six games that fall within roughly ten percentage points of 50-50. Week 18 at Denver could be delightfully obnoxious.

Kansas City Chiefs — 9.45 wins, 55.06% playoffs

Kansas City's schedule starts manageable and becomes significantly harder. Buffalo, Los Angeles, Cincinnati, New England, San Francisco and the Chargers all arrive from Weeks 12-17. Patrick Mahomes has been fully cleared for training camp following his ACL injury and has said the knee feels strong, but his recovery remains one of the largest variables the preseason model cannot fully know.

Denver Broncos — 9.12 wins, 44.94% playoffs

Denver's first six games are brutal: Kansas City, Jacksonville, the Rams, San Francisco, the Chargers and Seattle. Then it gets easier. Arizona, Las Vegas, Carolina, Miami and the Jets provide opportunities before Buffalo and New England show up late. The difference between 8-9 and 10-7 may simply be surviving September.

Las Vegas Raiders — 5.47 wins, 1.81% playoffs

The Raiders have a reasonably neutral schedule but very few spots where they're meaningfully favored. Tennessee and Arizona late are their best opportunities. Unfortunately the division contains three teams projected around nine wins or better.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles — 11.23 wins, 87.53% playoffs

Philadelphia owns the strongest division-winning probability in football: 79.58%. The schedule is not easy, but it is not destructive either. The late stretch—Seattle, San Francisco and two Dallas games scattered through the year—creates some volatility. Trading A.J. Brown to New England changes the offense, but the model still sees a clear divisional favorite.

Dallas Cowboys — 8.87 wins, 33.61% playoffs

Dallas has our third-hardest schedule despite a projected offense ranked third in football at 27.3 points per game. This is exactly the sort of team schedule-adjusted simulation punishes. Baltimore in Brazil, Houston, Green Bay, Philadelphia twice, Seattle, San Francisco and the Rams is a lot of evenings spent asking, "Did we really need this?"

New York Giants — 7.25 wins, 8.64% playoffs

New York's schedule ranks seventh-hardest. The Giants get Arizona, Tennessee and Cleveland, but those softer games are mixed among Philadelphia twice, Detroit, San Francisco, Houston and Jacksonville. The model sees improvement from 2025 without seeing January.

Washington Commanders — 6.71 wins, 5.30% playoffs

Washington has our fourth-hardest schedule, but it is heavily front-loaded. Seattle, Dallas, Indianapolis in London, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Houston and the Rams are scattered across Washington's season. The second half gets easier, but the Commanders may already be chasing the standings by then.

NFC North

Detroit Lions — 12.04 wins, 93.15% playoffs

The NFL's highest expected-win total belongs to Detroit because the Lions combine a top-three team rating with our easiest schedule. Eleven games give Detroit at least a 70% win probability. But Weeks 17 and 18 are outdoors at Chicago and Green Bay, exactly the late-season dome-team issue NFL schedule research flags. Detroit might win the regular-season forecast without being our best postseason team.

Green Bay Packers — 10.78 wins, 78.00% playoffs

Green Bay sits in a tricky middle ground: clearly good, clearly behind Detroit in the division, clearly capable of becoming a playoff problem. Buffalo, New England and Detroit provide three near-coin flips. Week 18 against the Lions could alter seeding significantly.

Chicago Bears — 8.84 wins, 28.47% playoffs

Chicago has six short weeks, tied with Buffalo for the most in football. The Bears also face our ninth-hardest slate. Detroit and Green Bay twice each make an eight-to-nine-win projection feel much less insulting than it first appears.

Minnesota Vikings — 6.62 wins, 3.92% playoffs

The Vikings are rarely enormous underdogs, but they're also rarely substantial favorites. Indianapolis, Atlanta and Washington are essentially toss-ups. Detroit and Green Bay provide the divisional ceiling.

NFC South

Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 8.61 wins, 54.17% playoffs

Somebody must win the NFC South. This is in the NFL Constitution.

Tampa does it most often at 52.76%, despite winning fewer than nine games on average. The division could remain unresolved through Week 18, when Tampa visits New Orleans in a game our model prices almost exactly 50-50.

New Orleans Saints — 8.07 wins, 32.80% playoffs

The Saints have our third-easiest schedule and are the main reason Tampa cannot relax. Carolina, Atlanta and Tampa late mean New Orleans has a path to steal the division without needing to be one of the NFC's best teams.

Atlanta Falcons — 6.90 wins, 13.30% playoffs

Atlanta's late schedule gets easier, but the Falcons are playing catch-up in most simulations. Cleveland, Washington, New Orleans and Carolina provide a soft closing route if the season remains alive.

Carolina Panthers — 6.05 wins, 5.90% playoffs

Carolina gets a difficult slate and few games as a meaningful favorite. The final game against Atlanta is basically a coin flip. Six wins is not glamorous, but this division provides strange opportunities to remain mathematically alive long after one's emotional instincts have moved on.

NFC West

Los Angeles Rams — 11.95 wins, 93.20% playoffs

Second-hardest schedule.

Seven prime-time games.

Australia.

Buffalo.

Philadelphia.

Green Bay.

Kansas City.

Seattle twice in the final three weeks.

And still our Super Bowl favorite.

That is the strongest statement the model makes.

Seattle Seahawks — 11.93 wins, 92.77% playoffs

The reigning champions are basically tied with Los Angeles in expected wins. They have two huge late Rams games, plus Philadelphia and San Francisco. Seattle wins the NFC West in 38.58% of simulations despite being a nearly 12-win team. That is absurd. It is also the NFC West.

San Francisco 49ers — 10.40 wins, 69.18% playoffs

San Francisco projects like a playoff team trapped behind two conference-title favorites. The closing run of the Rams, Chargers, Chiefs, Eagles and Arizona is one of the most difficult late sequences in our data. Ten wins may require considerable competence.

Arizona Cardinals — 4.06 wins, 0.07% playoffs

Arizona owns our hardest schedule.

NFL.com's forward-looking schedule analysis reached essentially the same conclusion, noting six road games in the first nine weeks and seven games against teams that won at least one playoff game last season.

Then Arizona gets six divisional games against Los Angeles, Seattle and San Francisco.

This feels less like a schedule and more like a hazing ritual.

So who makes the playoffs?

The simulation's divisional favorites are Buffalo, Baltimore, Houston and the Chargers in the AFC.

Philadelphia, Detroit, Tampa Bay and the Rams lead the NFC.

The most competitive race is the AFC West, where the Chargers sit at just 43.20% to win the division. Kansas City is 33.41%. Denver is 22.72%.

The strangest is the NFC West.

Los Angeles has a 50.49% division probability.

Seattle has 38.58%.

San Francisco has 10.93%.

Arizona rounds to zero.

Three teams from one division combine for 30.6 expected regular-season wins and 33.74 percentage points of Super Bowl probability.

The NFC West is less a division and more a small regional dispute requiring federal mediation.

The model's biggest disagreement with the market is not Los Angeles

This surprised me.

The Rams' August 21 futures price implied roughly a 16.67% raw championship probability.

Our simulation: 17.28%.

Basically the same.

The much larger upward moves are Buffalo, Seattle, Baltimore and Detroit.

Buffalo goes from 9.09% raw market implied probability to 14.75% in the simulation.

Seattle: 8.33% to 13.70%.

Baltimore: 8.33% to 12.40%.

Detroit: 5.26% to 8.64%.

Again, this cannot be treated as a clean betting signal because futures are one of our inputs and sportsbook implied probabilities contain vig.

But conceptually it is useful.

The broader model likes these teams more once underlying 2025 strength, projected offense and the actual schedule are layered together.

Kansas City moves the other direction.

The Chiefs had a 5.88% raw implied probability in our August 21 market snapshot.

The simulation lands at 1.31%.

That isn't the computer announcing Patrick Mahomes is finished and demanding everyone leave Arrowhead immediately.

Kansas City ranked only 20th in final 2025 FPI, Mahomes is returning from major knee surgery, and the late schedule is ugly.

Our offensive model loves the Chiefs.

The full-season model is much more cautious.

That is exactly the kind of disagreement this exercise is supposed to uncover.

The Super Bowl prediction

Thirty thousand seasons later, the final hierarchy is:

Rams: 17.28%

Bills: 14.75%

Seahawks: 13.70%

Ravens: 12.40%

Lions: 8.64%

If I have to turn those probabilities into one actual prediction, here it is:

The Los Angeles Rams are our 2026 Super Bowl pick.

Buffalo is the most likely AFC champion at 28.96%.

Los Angeles is the most likely NFC champion at 28.09%.

If those two teams met on a neutral field using the same underlying ratings that power the simulation, Los Angeles would be approximately a 56% favorite.

Not 90%.

Not destiny.

Fifty-six percent.

Which is another useful reminder of how ridiculous prediction culture can become.

We spend six months ranking teams in precise order only to eventually arrive at a championship game where our preferred team might have roughly the same advantage you would give yourself after seeing the restaurant has a four-star rating instead of 3.8.

Comforting?

Sure.

Certainty?

Please.

What could make this paper look stupid?

Plenty.

That is part of the point.

The model uses final 2025 FPI as half of its baseline, meaning defensive changes, coaching changes and personnel development are not directly rebuilt player by player.

The market helps capture new information. The AutoDraftYears offensive projection helps update expected scoring. But neither magically knows what a rookie corner looks like in December or whether a quarterback's knee survives Week 3.

Injuries will happen.

Quarterbacks will surprise us.

Some coordinator will discover an offensive concept in October that immediately makes August analysis look like it was conducted using a fax machine.

The simulation's playoff tiebreaking is also an approximation. Tied records use model rating plus deterministic jitter rather than recreating the NFL's entire official tiebreak tree.

And scheduling itself is not completely frozen. The NFL has left several Week 16 and 17 kickoff slots open and will determine all Week 18 dates and times after Week 17.

So this is not a claim that we solved football.

Football would react poorly to being solved.

This is something more useful: a timestamped record of what the available information actually suggested before we knew the answers.

Which brings us back to the red and green pens

The predictions are locked.

August 21, 2026.

Thirty thousand simulations.

Rams to win the Super Bowl.

Bills to emerge from the AFC.

Detroit to lead the league in expected regular-season wins.

Baltimore to own the highest playoff probability.

Arizona to face the hardest schedule.

Detroit the easiest.

Every regular-season game has a predicted winner and probability sitting in the database waiting for reality to arrive.

When the season ends, we will reopen this piece.

Correct predictions turn green.

Wrong predictions turn red.

Not because we're expecting the page to become green.

It won't.

There are 272 NFL games. Humans will get hurt. Footballs will bounce strangely. A backup quarterback will throw for 314 yards on a Thursday night for absolutely no defensible reason. Somewhere a kicker will hit an upright and alter an entire playoff bracket because physics wanted attention.

The goal is not to prove that we can predict football perfectly.

The goal is to discover which things were actually predictable before the season—and which things only looked obvious after they happened.

That is a much harder question.

Unfortunately, we have now created permanent evidence.

The Short Version

• Super Bowl pick: Los Angeles Rams — 17.28%.
• Most likely AFC champion: Buffalo Bills — 28.96%.
• Highest expected-win total: Detroit Lions — 12.04.
• Highest playoff probability: Baltimore Ravens — 95.18%.
• Hardest schedule: Arizona. Easiest: Detroit. Predictions locked August 21. Bring back the red and green pens in February.