QB · KC · 2026 fantasy outlook
Patrick Mahomes: 2026 Fantasy Outlook
Our model ranks Patrick Mahomes about 86 places above his market price, which is the profile we treat as a genuine value rather than a hunch.
Where the market has him
Our published board has him at 97, 4 places higher than consensus ADP. Across 8 ranking sources the spread is 20.5 places — a long way apart. The unblended model sits 86 places above the market, which is our threshold for a major disagreement.
Our board recommends him around round 10. The replacement-level quarterback we measure him against is Jaxson Dart, which is the honest comparison: the question is never whether he is good, it is how much better he is than the player you could have instead.
The track record
Across 9 drafted seasons in our sample, Patrick Mahomes finished at or above his positional draft price 2 times. He returned a severe bust in 1 of them.
| Season | Drafted as | Finished | PPG | Games | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | QB6 | QB11 | 21.2 | 14 | — |
| 2024 | QB2 | QB11 | 18.4 | 16 | — |
| 2023 | QB1 | QB8 | 18.4 | 16 | — |
| 2022 | QB2 | QB1 | 25.3 | 17 | — |
| 2021 | QB1 | QB4 | 22 | 17 | — |
| 2020 | QB1 | QB4 | 25.4 | 15 | — |
| 2019 | QB1 | QB8 | 20.9 | 14 | — |
| 2018 | QB15 | QB1 | 26.1 | 16 | — |
| 2017 | QB34 | QB51 | 10.4 | — | Severe bust |
Positional draft rank against final positional finish on PPR total points. A severe bust is a finish outside the top 60 FLEX scorers.
Risk and upside
Our model tiers him low for risk and low for upside. Across the 2026 board those two scores are essentially uncorrelated, so a low-risk label is not a low-ceiling label.
Why the model says low risk: Low risk profile: injury-supported risk (51.1) with role uncertainty (37.4) as the secondary driver.
Patrick Mahomes: common questions
Where is Patrick Mahomes being drafted in 2026?
Patrick Mahomes is going around pick 101 overall, the QB12 off the board in consensus ADP across the ranking sources we track, though individual sources have him as high as 46 and as low as 108.
Is Patrick Mahomes a good pick in 2026?
Our model ranks Patrick Mahomes about 86 places above his market price, which is the profile we treat as a genuine value rather than a hunch.
How risky is Patrick Mahomes?
Our model puts him in the low risk tier. Risk here combines availability history, role certainty, how much the ranking sources disagree, and week-to-week volatility. It is a measure of how wide the range of outcomes looks, not a prediction that he will get hurt.
How many fantasy points will Patrick Mahomes score in 2026?
Our projection has him at about 19 points per game in full PPR, or roughly 266 on the season once 2.6 projected games lost are priced in. Projections are a central estimate, not a floor.
Drafted around the same cost
ADP is consensus across the ranking sources Auto Draft Years tracks. Historical finishes are positional ranks on PPR total points, 2017–2025. Board generated Aug 17, 2026. For informational and entertainment purposes only — projections are estimates, not forecasts.